Tips for Ascot: Best value bets on Saturday December 23

Joes Edge defied a 114 day absence in 2007 though such extended layoffs are exceptional when it comes to Ultima winners. High Definition is obviously a very high class ex-flat horse; he was favourite for the Dante as a three-year-old and ran second in the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup and third in the Group 1 Coronation Cup last year. The problem is that, as obviously and unsurprisingly fast as he has been, he jumps like, well, like a Dante favourite. I think he’s very likely to be found out in a race as hot as this, especially with other pace players from the get go. Jpr One has the best domestic form but not by much; he also has a trainer in form and can handle conditions.

Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends

The Glancing Queen will no doubt be well fancied for the feature race, but she hasn’t been the soundest jumper over hurdles and is worth opposing on her chase debut. Donald McCain is on a tremendous run of form (35% Strike Rate last 14 days) and there is every reason to believe she could add to the stables recent successes. If Chacun Pour Soi runs and wins at the Dublin Racing Festival this weekend – he’s currently a best priced 4/9 so to do – he’ll be shorter for the winning margin bets and odds on for the Champion Chase. If he doesn’t run, he’ll be circa evens on the day assuming he shows up. But, like I say, I think he’s a more robust animal this season, and I’m prepared to back that perception.

Ayr Gold Cup Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends

The best bet of Wednesday runs in the hardest race of the day. The Fred Winter is like a game of poker with trainers keeping all sorts of tricks up their sleeves with these inexperienced horses. His trainer, Brian Ellison, had the third in this race last year with Nietzsche and I sense The King Of May is a far better horse than him. Brian does not say much but when he does speak, you listen. He’s a very shrewd trainer who has Definitely Red in the Gold Cup. With the more recent addition of betting apps, it has become easier than ever before for punters to back a horse.

50 Coral Cup (Handicap, Grade 3, 2m5f)

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• We have a team of experts who provide consistently successful tips and have a loyal following of satisfied bettors.
• HIDDENVALLEY LAKE  is one I have had my eye on for this race for quite a while.
• Ensuring the accuracy of horse racing tips is paramount for punters seeking reliable insights.
• Just back the one that’s been given three quiet runs and a mark that’s well below what it’s really capable of.
• Altior sees off Min to retain his unbeaten record over obstacles.

Grand National

Although GALOPIN DES CHAMPS has to prove himself over an extra two and a half furlongs, he has a touch of brilliance about him suggesting he can prevail in a Gold Cup. Bar an agonising fall at the final fence when well clear in last year’s Turners Novices’ Chase, he would be heading to Cheltenham looking for a third festival Bolts Up Daily success, and he relishes spring ground. Still only seven years of age, he is also versatile regarding tactics and there is an awful lot to like about his credentials. Hunters Yarn is a horse that jumps off the page in this race. The stable have won this twice in the last 3 years and tend to have a good horse in it.

Horse racing tips: 11-1 shot will relish the soft ground and can bolt up at Catterick

The favourite, and very short at that, is trained by Willie Mullins and owned by Mrs S Ricci, and he is called Gaelic Warrior. Still a maiden after three hurdle starts in France he has a mark of just 129 which compares very favourably with his French peg of 63kg (multiply by 2.2 to get 138.6 pounds, making GW ten pounds ‘well in’). In his most recent start, Gaelic Warrior was outpaced on heavy ground before finishing strongly to take third of 14. The second horse, Golden Son, has since won a Grade 2 before claiming runner up honours in a G1; while the winner, Sans Bruit, has won a Grade 3 and been third in a Grade 2. Let’s start on home shores and Constitution Hill has looked all class in a pair of facile Sandown scores to date, trouncing a field of maidens before treating his Grade 1 Tolworth rivals with similar disdain.

Robin Goodfellow’s racing tips: Best bets for Thursday, April 21

Winners of one or two races on heavy are 1.4 times more likely to win than heavy maidens; and winners of three heavy ground races previously are more than 1.5 times more likely to prevail than maidens on that extreme of going. This horse is having its second run after a wind op and its first wearing a tongue tie. Both of those might be expected to eke out a little improvement; and look at the contextual snippets block – accessed by clicking the trainer icon (with the red box around it). There we see Fry’s two year record with handicap debutants at any track, which is fairly unexciting, but note above it his record when moving a horse notably in distance. A perfect example of a terrible race in need of a winner, with a single horse moderately favoured by conditions and within a few pounds (see right hand columns) of its last winning mark.

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Like all humans, trainers are creatures of habit, so get to know theirs. Some will have really good records at certain tracks and really poor records at others. Some will have regular quiet spells at particular times of the year and other spells when the winners readily flow.

Wolverhampton Tips

He was unlucky at Haydock last Saturday and a return to this trip will suit. TAMFANA can win a well-deserved Group 1 in the Sun Chariot Stakes. She was desperately unlucky not to win the 1,000 Guineas here in May and stepping up in trip in two French Group 1s has not really suited. She looked much more comfortable when bolting up over this trip at Sandown in August. Sunracing’s columnist Andrew Balding saddles likely favourite Brighton Boy and he was very strong at the finish at York. She’s bred to handle the ground and the only concern would be her 100-day absence, but, given the big money on offer, she will surely be primed for this.

talkSPORT betting tips – Best bets and expert advice for Saturday at Wetherby

Mistakes with his fencing likely contributed to him dropping out of contention from before three out, and he was well beaten when unshipping Paul Townend at the last. If you liked Ballyburn for this, his representative is the Henry de Bromhead-trained Slade Steel, who was third and second to the Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle favourite in a bumper and a Grade 1 novice hurdle respectively. Henry is perhaps the best target trainer of all in recent Festivals, his hit rate at the last five being a scarcely believable one in seven. Foxy Jacks has run cross country here three times and failed to get round twice, though he did win on the other occasion! That was in the November handicap last year in which the heavyweights Delta Work and Galvin both went missing, presumed not off.

There are several actions that could trigger this block including submitting a certain word or phrase, a SQL command or malformed data. Hillview Hideaway, GotheringtonA superb, luxury holiday home, Hillview Hideaway is your Cotswold haven for exploring Cheltenham and its history. With its own private patio and a fabulous hot tub, it also has a bright and spacious feel with an open-plan kitchen-dining-living area, and a breathtaking mezzanine bedroom. This year marks the Centenary of the Cheltenham Gold Cup. A story that began in 1924, the Gold Cup has since mushroomed to become one of the world’s most renowned steeplechases.

Unlucky not to win the NH Chase at Cheltenham a couple seasons ago and trainer’s UK strike rate is very good. Grosvenor Sport is offering new customers the chance to get £30 in FREE BETS when you bet £10 on horse racing. Henry Dwyer’s charge had finished fourth on her British debut in the Temple Stakes at Haydock last month, but she clearly enjoyed the faster ground at Royal Ascot to become Australia’s sixth winner of this race by a length. “He has been good all year, at Doncaster and then Sandown, and he ran a great race in the Lockinge where he came right away from all the horses he raced with.

It’s a day for hats

So it is that, again excepting the impostor Lord W, every other Gold Cup scorer this century has returned 12/1 or shorter. Joseph O’Brien won this in 2019 with Band Of Outlaws, and saddles Champion Green this time. A relative slow starter he broke his maiden at the fourth time of asking, over nine furlongs at Punchestown. The second won next time and was rated 89 when taking on handicappers for the first time, the third – also trained by Joseph – has won a couple of minor hurdle races, and the fourth won a Leopardstown maiden next time.

Going a step further, I’d favour run style over draw in certain scenarios which I’ll come on to. And I’d especially favour a horse from a wide gate with an ostensibly uncontested lead. A wide-open renewal of this race, but it is still very hard to get away from GOOBINATOR. Donald McCain’s 5-year-old finished 4th in the Cesarewitch behind Buzz at Newmarket last month, beaten 8-lengths and on that evidence, he looks to be exceptionally well-handicapped on a mark of 126 over hurdles. He won under Brian Hughes at Ayr last October, on the same mark as he can race off today and he looks to have a favourites chance.

• There we see Fry’s two year record with handicap debutants at any track, which is fairly unexciting, but note above it his record when moving a horse notably in distance.
• O’Connor has been a fine rider over the years but there are no weak links in the riding line-up here, and this race ought to go to the best horse at the trip, pure and simple.
• He comes here after an abortive trip to run in the Grand National Hurdle at Far Hills in October, and while the absence might be a worry, he was second in the Pertemps last year off an identical lay-off.
• Kyrov is currently rated 75kg (165), Golden Son 71 (156) and Tanganyika’s mark in France is 61.5 (135).
• These races comprise 50% of the 28 Festival contests and, in the last 15 years, they have accounted for roughly the same percentage of all the Festival contests (some of the newer races being upgraded during the review period).

Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends

He’ll be finishing strongly and looks a solid each way alternative to a ‘nothing between them’ top of the market. If we’re looking for the Hail Mary, a phrase our editor Matt loves so much, then it has to be Latin Verse. He looks so unlike a Boodles winner it’s untrue – this will be his seventh hurdles start and he’s already raced in an all-aged handicap at Ludlow last time out, one which he won by no fewer than 19 lengths. A 10lb rise for that win not only looks lenient – Timeform expected him to get a stone and more – but it creeps him right into the bottom of the handicap. If you’re a lover of figures (and we are, of course) he comes out well on both form and time.

Clearly not right when reopposing Jango Baie in that G1 he was pulled up on the soft ground there before beating the geegeez.co.uk syndicate horse Dartmoor Pirate into second at Huntingdon last time. The Pirate has since run a mighty fourth of 17 in the famously competitive EBF Final last Saturday, with Pauling novices filling out the first two places there! Tellherthename was withdrawn from the Betfair Hurdle on account of the ground and connections will want it to dry out as much as possible for their charge. With the forecast being for persistent drizzle and light rain, official going of soft is a very short price. Gordon Elliott has won six of the last seven (one of them under the pseudonym Denise Foster) Festival cross country races and has an iron grip on a bid for a seventh. And yet it’s Henry de Bromhead who saddles the ante post favourite, Minella Indo.

Four things you must know about racing

• Fell at 9/2 in 2018, when Min was only second as a 5/2 shot, and – worse – 7th in 2017 as a 2/9 chance.
• I’m struggling to make a case for any of Kings Hill, Supersundae and Gold Dancer.
• Willie has more than just State Man; he also saddles last year’s Triumph Hurdle winner, Vauban, and he’s an interesting contender.
• In his sole chase effort before the last day fall, Haut En Couleurs had easily accounted for Gentleman De Mee and Mt Leinster, the former hacking up twice since, most recently in Grade 3 company at odds of 1/5.
• The second won next time and was rated 89 when taking on handicappers for the first time, the third – also trained by Joseph – has won a couple of minor hurdle races, and the fourth won a Leopardstown maiden next time.
• With a longer-term record dating back to January 2021 of a similar level, he is undoubtedly a true expert to listen to when looking for value bets for each day’s racing.
• It all started with a new superstar in the name of Bob Olinger, who absolutely bolted up in the Ballymore novices hurdle to become the first of the Cheltenham Festival Day 2 Winners.

This has presumably been the target for Paul Hennessy’s charge; he also owns and bred her. Of the others on the shortlist, Does He Know’s trainer, Kim Bailey, has had a winner (in 1999) and two places from four Ultima starters, including last year’s second, Happygolucky. And Tea Clipper is interesting with first time cheekpieces and first run after a wind operation. He was no match for Bravemansgame in the Grade 1 Kauto Star (Feltham as was) but this will be more his cup of, well, you know. Full Back won at the New Year’s Day fixture and was probably looked after a little at Taunton in his only race since.

His form is in another postcode to his rivals in a market still trying to get him beaten with the wonderful but past his best Altior and a sizeable group of second division chasers. A horse like Fakir D’Oudairies, who is 20/1 NRNB in a place because he’s more likely to fly Ryanair, might be a feasible hail mary in a race loaded with if’s and but’s. Three runs, three wins, in Grade 2 and Grade 1 (twice) company, beating the right horses with nonchalance. He travels like a dream, jumps very well and, if he faces the starter at Cheltenham, will have managed more runs this season than in the previous two combined. A place strike rate of 36% is more compelling, and a majority of runners have performed at least close to market expectation. Notably, the big guns – Chantry House, Champ – have run very well.

Four of them, though, were going better than the labouring evens-favourite in fifth and an upset on the scale of last year’s looked on the cards. Learn more about Steve’s work by applying for your free information pack including full results and long term statistical analysis by clicking here. Second feature from Steve analysing handicaps and ratings following his insight into his work as a professional backer.

She’s the classiest mare in the entries for this race by at least seven pounds, and there’s a chance that drying ground sees Roksana re-routed to the Stayers’ Hurdle. There will still be Concertista to deal with, but Honeysuckle will be more 8/11 than 11/8 on the day if she runs here. If she doesn’t, you’ll get your cash back a fortnight hence.

Azzerti is a best price 12/1 at present, which looks a bit of value. Interesting cards at both Fakenham and Sandown this afternoon. We are going to look at two races from the latter where the going is on the heavy side of Soft. Last seen on the track when second at the Kempton Christmas meeting in another valuable handicap. Will prove to be a highly informative race for the future. Plaisir D’Amour runs from the Venetia Williams stable, who are in great form.

Clicking on the trainer’s name reveals today’s runner(s), and clicking the little up arrow to the left hand side displays inline the relevant past performances – here we can see that one of the pair won and the other was third. HERMES BOY chased home subsequent Cheltenham winner I Like To Move It when finishing 2nd at Worcester 5 weeks ago. It is also worth noting that he ran well on debut over this Course and Distance on his bumper debut last season and if he can build on his debut over timber, he should win this race that looks to lack any real depth.